At the end of each year, various media outlets interview psychics, mediums, astrologers, tarot readers, etc. for their take on what will happen next year. Uncertainty can be unsettling, and it would be nice to be able to look into a crystal ball and see the future. (Well, maybe.)
Good skeptics are open to all claims, but proportion their acceptance to the available evidence. The ability to predict the future is an extraordinary claim…and therefore requires extraordinary evidence.
The question is: How accurate are their predictions? More importantly, are they accurate enough to support their claim of psychic abilities?
A great way to test this is to look backwards and compare predictions for that year to what actually happened. And what better year to test than the one that changed all of our lives…2020?
I searched online for news articles from the end of 2019 to see what psychics predicted for 2020. What did I find? See for yourself!
Some predictions were so obvious that no psychic powers were needed:
- Theresa Reed, tarot reader: “This election promises to be a battle royale. It may even be more contentious than the last one. All sides are in it to win it — and most likely, there will be a vicious fight to the finish.”
- Susan Rowlen, psychic medium: Due to the effects of climate change, there will be “flooding across the United States…and even across the world.”
Some predictions were just wrong:
- Toni Greene, psychic medium: “Trump will shine, but it’s going to be a very close race for him.”
- Craig Hamilton-Parker, psychic medium: “Japan and India will see major quakes that may cause disruption to the Summer Olympics.”
- Susan Rowlen, psychic medium: Due to 5G, “The rate of aneurysms and tumors are at an all time high…Get yourself body armor…because those radioactive frequencies are very strong.”
But most predictions were so vague, they didn’t really say anything:
- Toni Greene, psychic medium: “For most people, 2019 was extremely challenging. It was like walking through quicksand. 2020 has the potential to be very magical and miraculous for most people. If you’re on your path, if you’re doing the right thing, it’s just going to take off.”
- Amy Tripp, astrologer: “Overall, 2020 is well-suited for advancing career goals and making or saving money.”
- Felicia Bender, numerologist: “Numerologically, 2020 is a 4 Universal Year, where the global energy is all about getting real! It’s the year to settle in for the longer haul, set clear and well-defined goals, do the research, and create effective systems to achieve the goal(s).”
- Kristy Robinett, psychic medium and astrologer: “We will see expansive communication for freedom and equality, using peaceful means with love and compassion. With that, we will see an uprising in humanity and fairness over greed and profit in a revolution for kindness.”
- Michael Lennox, psychologist, astrologer, and dream expert: “This is an excellent year for focusing on one particular direction, rather than exploring lots of new ideas.”
Wait…Didn’t the psychics miss something important?
Keen readers may notice something missing from the psychic predictions for 2020: the global pandemic. There were other notable events, too, such as the killing of George Floyd and the resulting global Black Lives Matter movement, Joe Biden winning the presidency, etc. If psychics could actually see into the future, shouldn’t they have foreseen the major events that DID happen?
Thinking critically about psychic claims
Despite the lack of scientific evidence to support psychic claims, over a quarter of Americans believe in the ability to predict the future.
To understand why, it’s helpful to look more closely at the tools psychics use.
Most psychics don’t make specific predictions, but instead make general claims that can be interpreted in any number of ways. Basically, if you want to find meaning in a vague statement…you will.
Consider the following prediction:
“The great plague of the maritime city. Will not cease until there be avenged the death. Of the just blood, condemned for a price without crime.”
What does that mean? If you can, try to make sense of it before reading further.
Okay, now the useful context: It was written in the 16th century by French prophet Nostradamus in his book Les Prophéties, and has been interpreted by some as a prediction of the coronavirus pandemic. But if we can only make sense of a prediction in hindsight (if you can make sense of it at all), is it really a prediction?
In addition, most psychics make a lot of predictions, often based on probability, which increases their chances of getting something right. Due to confirmation bias, we may only remember the times the psychic was “right” and overlook the many more instances in which they were wrong.
For example, The Simpsons has made several predictions that have come true, including a Donald Trump presidency.
Does that mean the writers are psychic?
Not necessarily. Not only has the show been on the air for over 30 years, the writers are highly educated people who draw on pop culture references for their storylines. Donald Trump expressed interest in running for the presidency decades ago, and the show was looking for a funny celebrity to be president.
As writer Al Jean said, “If you make enough predictions then 10% will turn out to be right.”
The take-home message
The desire to believe in psychic predictions is understandable. There’s something magical and mysterious about being able to foresee the future.
We can’t conclude from this exercise that psychics can’t, or don’t, exist. But remember that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and psychic abilities are certainly an extraordinary claim. Yet the “evidence” to support psychic predictions is very, very ordinary.
Here’s a fun exercise! The next time you find psychic predictions for the New Year, put them in the calendar. A year from now, see how they did!